Kerala's religious population mix is shifting slowly
PRI Research Team· 1 Mar 2026 
29.9%
Muslim share of Kerala's population, 2024 (est.), up from 26.5% in 2011
−27%
Decline in annual Muslim births in Kerala, 2014 → 2024
Both numbers come from the same underlying community. Read together, they describe a population whose share of the state has grown gradually over more than a decade, but whose birth rate has been falling sharply and recently — the two trends that, together, typically mark a demographic transition settling toward the rest of the state's pattern rather than diverging from it.
Kerala publishes religion-wise population estimates only once a decade, at the Census. Between the 2011 Census and 2024 projections, the state's religious composition moved modestly: Hindus' share fell from 54.7% to 52.0%, Christians' share fell from 18.3% to 17.6%, and Muslims' share rose from 26.5% to 29.9%. In absolute numbers, Kerala's Muslim population grew from 88.73 lakh (8,873,472) in 2011 to an estimated 1.08 crore (10,766,903) in 2024.
The share shift since 2011
The rise in Muslims' population share was mirrored mainly by a decline in Hindus' share (−2.7 percentage points) and, to a smaller extent, Christians' (−0.7 points). The 2024 figures are projections ahead of India's next Census, which is due in 2027; the 2011 figures are the last full Census count.
Most of Muslims' 3.3-point share increase is mirrored by Hindus' 2.7-point decline, with Christians accounting for a smaller share of the shift (−0.7 points).
Why the share is still moving: age structure, not just recent growth
Population share doesn't just reflect this year's births — it reflects decades of past births working their way through the age pyramid. Kerala's 2024 age breakdown shows why the Muslim share has been rising even as recent births slow: Muslims make up 40.3% of Kerala's under-18 population but only 22.6% of its over-40 population. Hindus show the reverse pattern — 42.6% of the under-18 group but 57.4% of the over-40 group. Christians skew older too, at 19.8% of the 40-plus group against 15.7% of the under-18 group.
Put differently: relative to each group's own 29.9% (Muslim), 52.0% (Hindu) and 17.6% (Christian) share of Kerala's total 2024 population, Muslims are over-represented among children and under-represented among older adults, while Hindus show the opposite pattern. That's consistent with Muslims' fertility transition in Kerala having peaked and begun declining later than Hindus' and Christians' — which is exactly what the birth-count data below shows happening now.
Each religion's share of Kerala's population changes by age bracket — Muslims are the youngest-skewing group, Hindus the oldest-skewing.
The leading indicator: births are falling fast
The clearest sign that this pattern is already correcting itself is the birth data. The number of births to Muslim families in Kerala fell from 218,437 in 2014 to 159,088 in 2024 — a drop of 59,349 births, or 27%, in a decade. The source data attributes this to later marriage ages driving down fertility, a pattern that is, in turn, expected to shift Kerala's Muslim population toward an older average age over time — the same trajectory Hindu and Christian populations in the state moved through earlier.
Percentage points above or below each group's own overall 2024 population share, by age bracket — Muslims' under-18 over-representation and over-40 under-representation are both the largest of the three groups.
Hindu, 2024
52.0%
Muslim, 2024
29.9%
Christian, 2024
17.6%
Why this matters
Kerala's population mix has shifted gradually over more than a decade, and the age-structure data shows that shift largely reflects past fertility patterns still working through the population, not a trend that is speeding up. The clearest forward-looking signal in this data is the births chart: a 27% drop in a single decade points toward convergence with the rest of the state's fertility pattern, not divergence from it. The practical implication shows up elsewhere in this series — Malappuram, Kerala's most Muslim-majority district, is also its most youth-heavy and carries the state's highest Plus One demand and tightest healthcare capacity today. That's a today's-classroom-and-clinic planning problem rooted in births from 10–18 years ago, not a forecast about the population's future direction, which the birth data suggests is already levelling off.
Sources & notes
- Share of Muslims, Hindus and Christians in Kerala's total population, 2011 (Census) and 2024 (estimated), including absolute Muslim population counts. Source PDF, p.9. The source states the 2011→2024 Muslim share increase as "+3.3" percentage points; the displayed shares (26.5% → 29.9%) round to a 3.4-point difference.
- Share of each age bracket (under 18, 18–40, 40+) accounted for by each religious group, Kerala, 2024. Source PDF, p.10.
- Annual births to Kerala Muslim families, 2014 and 2024. Sources: Annual Vital Statistics 2006–2024, Census 2011, Voters List LSGD 2025. Source PDF, p.11.
- "Representation" chart is a calculated difference between each group's age-bracket share (p.10) and that same group's overall 2024 population share (p.9) — not a figure stated directly in the source.